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At DailyFX we typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment but due to recent changes in long and short positioning we arrive at a short-term cautious disposition.Ĭontact and followWarrenon Twitter: provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. IGCS shows retail traders are currently SHORT on USD/CAD, with 59% of traders currently holding short positions (as of this writing). Although there is room for further upside short-term, the medium-term could lead to a weaker dollar should the US debt ceiling pass through Congress and OPEC+ go ahead with their intended production cuts. Chinese manufacturing PMI exacerbated the issue from the demand-side with actual numbers reaching 48.8 (the lowest level for 2023) and highlighting the contractionary state of China’s manufacturing economy.ĭaily USD/CAD price action shows bulls maintain the price above the 1.3600 psychological handle while the 50-day (yellow) and 200-day (blue) moving average may look to crossover in what is known as a death cross. There has been a unilateral agreement to cut production but considering Russia’s history, analysts are doubtful leaving crude oil capped. The greenback’s safe haven appeal has thus been fed with risk aversion, pushing USD/CAD higher.Ĭrude oil prices have similarly slipped on the back of a stronger USD however, friction amongst OPEC+’s largest contributors (Russia and Saudi Arabia) has grown due to Russia failing to meet its production cut agreements and possibly extending this trend once they meet on June 4th to decide on an output deal. As has been the theme of late, US debt ceiling uncertainty around the deal being passed through Congress is lingering with some Republicans stating that they will reject the deal. The Canadian dollar has not had a happy few weeks and this looks set to continue today with both USD and crude oil factors weighing on the loonie.
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